Manifest Destiny: Could Canada Become a State?

While the notion of Canada becoming a U.S. State may seem like another one of Trump's unfiltered comments, it is an idea that precedes Trump and it is not as far fetched as one might think.

During a visit by Canadian Premier Justin Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago a few weeks after the election, Donald Trump suggested (presumably in jest) Canadian incorporation into the union to avoid future tariffs. Trudeau reacted with a nervous laugh, as perhaps the idea is not as crazy as it might initially seem.

As a nation of forty-million residents, Canada would become the largest state in both area and in population, being slightly more populace than California. President-elect Trump has also proposed purchasing Greenland from Denmark, and retaking control over the Panama Canal Zone.

While admitting such an enormous territory as Canada would entail considerable logistical conundrums and legal impediments, the concept ought not to be cursorily dismissed. The GOP-led Congress should support the addition of new states into the union, although it should be done very carefully. In November 2020, the territory of Puerto Rico, by a narrow majority of voters, approved statehood. Both houses of Congress previously introduced bills (H.R. 1522 and S. 780) to admit Puerto Rico, but the bills did not pass. It is also worth mentioning that in April 2021, the House passed a bill (H.R. 51) to admit the District of Columbia (DC) as a state.

The Current State of our Neighbor to the North

Regarding Canada, their various provinces share little in common. The nation is officially bilingual (English and French), despite few Canadians being fluent in both languages. The provinces of Ontario and Quebec together constitute three-fifths of the population with their respective urban centers of Toronto and Montreal, and thereby dominate the political and economic landscape. Over his nearly decade-long rule, Trudeau opened the floodgates to mass immigration, which has led to housing shortages and rampant inflation.

Geographically, Canada subdivides into five separate and thinly connected regions: Atlantic, Central Canada, Prairie, West Coast, and the Northern territories. Politically, Canada comprises ten provinces and three territories. The Atlantic includes Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick that borders Maine. Ontario and Québec form Central Canada, both geographically and politically. Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta comprise the Prairie, while British Columbia borders the Pacific. Territories subdivide into Nunavut, Northwest and Yukon, having been reorganized throughout Canada’s history.

The land mass radiates from the Hudson Bay, which separates Nunavut, Manitoba, Ontario and Québec. The bulk of Canada’s population resides near the Great Lakes and the American southern border, leaving most of the land mass comparatively empty. Although cold temperatures from occupying high northern latitudes contributes to this condition, other factors exacerbate habitation. In particular, the northeastern portion surrounding the Hudson Bay called the Canadian Shield, which comprises Precambrian rock billions of years old is unsuitable for agriculture. Tundra covers much of the remainder of northern Canada.

Ontario shares the Great Lakes with Michigan and Wisconsin, and borders New York and Minnesota while bordering Québec to the east and Manitoba to the west. Québec also borders New Brunswick and Labrador to the east. The Prairie features picturesque lakes and mountains with Manitoba bordering North Dakota, and Saskatchewan and Alberta bordering Montana. British Columbia represents the region facing the Pacific and borders Washington and Idaho. Northern territories include Nunavut north of Manitoba, Northwest Territories north of Saskatchewan and Alberta, and Yukon north of British Columbia.

Cross-national connections exceed inter-provisional connections due to Canada’s population distribution being concentrated primarily along the southern border. With rising tensions from Justin Trudeau’s autocracy (previously managed behind the scenes by former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland), flyover Canadians may yet tire of their association with Ottawa. If any Prairie province votes to secede from Canada, national communication and transport infra­structures would sever, cleaving Ontario from British Columbia.

Canadian discontent precedes Trudeau’s political ascension. For example, Lansing Lamont published Breakup in 1994, describing Canada’s integrated fragility. As regional alliances and global trade priorities have shifted, Peter Zeihan has projected upcoming challenges for Canada to withstand fracture. Rudyard Lynch on his WhatIfAltHist channel has outlined Canada’s projected split. Lastly, the implications of complete Canadian incorporation into the United States have been described by Videntis on his own channel.

Absent Alberta’s wealth which serves to entice French-speakers into remaining in Canada, Québec lacks much rationale to remain tied to Ontario. Québec’s independence divides Ontario from the Atlantic provinces. Looking eastward towards the United Kingdom, Newfoundland and Labrador could resume their independence that they surrendered in 1934. Other Atlantic provinces might continue their federation with Ontario, or perhaps might seek to join the United States. Looking westward, British Columbia could maintain its commerce with the Far East. This potential for a domino effect makes Canadian federal integrity quite fragile indeed.

In particular, western Canadians suffer from tyrannical edicts from Ottawa, Ontario. The Prairie Provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta bear the brunt of Great Lakes hegemony. The geography and cultural history of Canada render that country vulnerable to disintegration this century due to inherent demographic and economic stresses. In their 1995 independence referendum, the Québécois only narrowly defeated the measure. Alarmed, Ottawa bribed its Francophone neighbors through the mineral and agricultural wealth of the Prairies, particularly Alberta – the province with the highest per capita wealth. In effect, Alberta’s petroleum extraction and other mining efforts fund the national subsidy for Quebec to remain in the confederation.

In August 1998, the Canadian Supreme Court ruled that French-speaking Québec had no unilateral right to secede under its Constitution. The Court also indicated that were an independence referendum to gain a “clear majority voting in favor of a clear secession question,” the remainder of the country “would have no basis to deny the right of the government of Québec to pursue secession” thereby requiring a negotiation of terms. In response, Parliament in 2020 passed the Clarity Act which established conditions for entering negotiations leading to secession following a provincial vote, which applies to all the provinces.

What a Future Canada Might Look Like

As separate landlocked nations, the Prairie provinces would benefit from joining their southern neighbor, and may also include the Northwest Territories and Yukon which would be helpful for accessing both America’s market and its financial institutions. The Keystone XL pipeline would transition to a purely domestic issue, thereby improving the political calculus for its support. Assuming this scenario, national borders on the North American map would be rearranged as shown below.

Polls suggest that two-fifths of Albertan respondents support independence, indicating serious discontent with Trudeau’s regime. Republican leaders should put that to the test by inviting Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba into the union. If only Alberta joined and Puerto Rico were also added, this would necessitate replacing the canton from fifty stars (arranged in a 6×5 + 5×4 pattern) to fifty-two stars (in a 7×4 + 6×4 pattern). The additional admission of Saskatchewan and Manitoba would yield a canton of fifty-four stars (in a 9×6 pattern). Were Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick also incorporated, our flag could boast 57 stars (in a 10×3 + 9×3 pattern), reminiscent of when then-Senator Obama and double-Ivy-graduate mentioned having visited that many states. As background, many will recall that the U.S. flag has remained unchanged since 1960, after the admission of Hawaii as the fiftieth state.

All Canadian provinces qualify by population for statehood (although none of its territories), but Congress would have to admit each of them following popular petition. Comparative patterns for 50, 52, 54 and 57 stars are shown below.

Would any of this be possible? Would anyone north of the 49^th parallel be interested? No idea, although skepticism abounds. But it’d certainly be fun to ask the questions. And given that the Prairie provinces are less urban and more socio-economically traditional than their coastal neighbors, the reaction from our own Woke population might well be quite entertaining.

At the least, social justice warriors would be on notice that statehood expansion can go both ways. At the least, an invitation to our northern trading partners would serve to increase the Prairie provinces’ political leverage against their stifling as Ottawa’s piggy bank. And, instead of assigning young children to scribble horizontal rainbow stripes with crayons, we would get to have Kindergarten contests for the purpose of redesigning our national flag’s canton. I’d call that a win.

Photo Credit- Millennial Republicans